Aba bahanga bazwi cyane mu bushakashatsi ku bibazo by’umutekano, imiyoborere n’amakimbirane mu Karere k’Ibiyaga Bigari, bagerageza kugaragaza imbaraga n’imbogamizi z’uburyo Amerika yakoresheje mu guhuza u Rwanda na RDC, ariko hakazamo inyungu z’ubukungu zijyanye n’umutungo kamere wa Congo.

Isesengura ryabo rishingiye ku gitekerezo cy’uko politiki ya "America First" yashyize imbere inyungu z’ubucuruzi n’ishoramari kurusha kubaka uburyo burambye bwo gukemura amakimbirane.

Nubwo iyi raporo ishimangira ko ubuyobozi bwa Trump bwagize uruhare rukomeye mu guhuza impande zombi ku meza y’ibiganiro, inavuga ko amahoro adashobora kugerwaho binyuze gusa mu masezerano ya dipolomasi cyangwa ay’ubukungu, ahubwo ko bisaba gukemura impamvu muzi z’amakimbirane ndetse no gushyiraho uburyo bwizewe bwo kubahiriza ibyemeranyijwe.

Amasezerano ya Washington n’imbogamizi zayo

Amasezerano y’amahoro yasinyiwe i Washington hagati y’u Rwanda na Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Kongo yafashwe nk’intambwe ikomeye muri dipolomasi ya Amerika ku mugabane wa Afurika.

Intego yayo yari uguhosha umwuka mubi wari umaze igihe hagati y’ibihugu byombi no gufasha kurema icyizere cyatuma ubufatanye bw’ubukungu bwiyongera, by’umwihariko mu rwego rw’ubucukuzi bw’amabuye y’agaciro akenerwa cyane mu nganda z’ikoranabuhanga n’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi.

Icyakora, nk’uko aba bashakashatsi babigaragaza, ibyari byitezwe ntibyahise bigerwaho. Nubwo amasezerano yari amaze gusinywa, imirwano hagati y’umutwe wa M23 n’Ingabo za Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (FARDC) yarakomeje mu bice bitandukanye bya Kivu y’Amajyaruguru na Kivu y’Amajyepfo.

Kuri bo, ibi byerekanye ko amasezerano ya dipolomasi yonyine adahagije mu gukemura ikibazo kimaze imyaka irenga mirongo itatu mu karere karimo amagana y’imitwe yitwaje intwaro, kutizerana hagati y’impande zitandukanye ndetse n’ibibazo bya politiki n’umutekano bikomeje kuranga ako akarere.

Aba banditsi bavuga ko amahoro arambye adashobora gushingira gusa ku masezerano y’ishoramari cyangwa ku nyungu z’ubukungu. Ahubwo basanga hakenewe inzego zikomeye z’igenzura, uburyo bwo kubahiriza ibyemeranyijwe ndetse no gukemura impamvu nyamukuru zitera amakimbirane.

Impamvu Amerika yinjiye cyane muri iki kibazo

Mu isesengura ryabo, Walker, Miviri na Stearns bavuga ko impinduka zikomeye zabaye nyuma y’uko umutwe wa M23 ufashe imijyi ya Goma na Bukavu muri Mutarama na Gashyantare 2025.

Icyo gihe, nk’uko babivuga, ubuyobozi bwa Kinshasa bwatangiye gushaka uburyo bwo gukurura Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika kugira ngo zigire uruhare rugaragara mu gushaka igisubizo.

Aba bashakashatsi bavuga kandi ko ibintu byarushijeho gufata indi ntera muri Gashyantare 2025, ubwo abarwanyi ba M23 begeraga kimwe mu birombe bikomeye by’amabuye y’agaciro giherereye muri teritwari ya Walikale, cyari gifitwe n’isosiyete y’Abanyamerika, mbere y’uko uwo mutwe usubira inyuma.

Mu isesengura ryabo, bavuga ko icyo ari kimwe mu byatumye ubutegetsi bwa Trump burushaho kwinjira muri iki kibazo, buhera ku gufatira ibihano bamwe mu bayobozi b’u Rwanda, barimo Gen (Rtd) James Kabarebe, ndetse no kongera imbaraga za dipolomasi hagati ya Kigali na Kinshasa.

Muri Mata 2025, Perezida Trump yashyizeho Massad Boulos nk’umujyanama mukuru ushinzwe Afurika. Aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko Boulos, uvuga neza Igifaransa kandi ufite uburambe mu bucuruzi muri Afurika y’Iburengerazuba, cyane cyane muri Nigeria, yahise ahabwa inshingano zo guhuza ibiganiro hagati ya guverinoma y’u Rwanda n’iya Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo.

Kunenga uburyo ubutegetsi bwa Trump bwafashe ibyemezo

Kimwe mu bice by’ingenzi bigize iyi raporo ni isesengura ry’uburyo ubutegetsi bwa Trump bwahinduye imikorere isanzwe ikoreshwa mu gufata ibyemezo birebana n’ibibazo by’umutekano mpuzamahanga.

Aba banditsi bavuga ko mbere y’ubutegetsi bwa Trump, ibyemezo nk’ibi byafatwaga nyuma yo kuganirwaho n’inzego zitandukanye zirimo Akanama k’Umutekano k’Umukuru w’Igihugu (National Security Council), Minisiteri y’Ububanyi n’Amahanga, Minisiteri y’Ingabo ndetse n’inzego z’ubutasi.

Ibi, nk’uko babivuga, byafashaga ko ibyemezo bishingira ku bitekerezo by’impuguke mu bya dipolomasi, umutekano n’ubutasi.

Mu isesengura ryabo, bavuga ko ubuyobozi bwa Trump bwateshutse kuri uwo murongo. Nubwo ku mugaragaro byagaragaraga ko Minisiteri y’Ububanyi n’Amahanga iyobowe na Marco Rubio ari yo iyoboye dosiye ya Congo, aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko uruhare rukomeye rwari mu maboko ya Massad Boulos.

Bongeraho ko, mbere yo kwinjira muri guverinoma, Boulos atari afite uburambe muri politiki cyangwa mu buyobozi bwa leta ya Amerika, ahubwo ko imbaraga ze kugeza ubu zishingira cyane ku mubano wa hafi afitanye na Perezida Trump ndetse no ku bushobozi bwe bwo guhuza inyungu za dipolomasi, ubucuruzi na politiki.

Mu buryo bwabo bwo gusesengura, aba banditsi bavuga ko kuba Amerika yari ifite inyungu z’ishoramari rikomeye muri Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo byatumye ubuyobozi bwa Trump burushaho kubogamira ku ruhande rwa Kinshasa, ibintu bavuga ko byagize ingaruka ku buryo Washington yari isanzwe ifatwa nk’umuhuza utabogamye.

Ingaruka ku mubano wa Amerika n’u Rwanda

Raporo inagaragaza ko izi mpinduka zagize ingaruka ku mubano wari usanzwe hagati y’u Rwanda na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.

Aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko Minisiteri y’Ingabo ya Amerika yabuze ijambo muri iki kibazo bitandukanye nuko byari bisanzwe mu ifatwa ry’ibyemezo birebana n’u Rwanda ndetse n’ibihano byafashwe. Bemeza ko ibi byagize ingaruka ku mikoranire yari isanzwe hagati y’ibisirikare by’ibihugu byombi.

Bongeraho kandi ko muri politiki ya Amerika hari abanyapolitiki n’abandi bafata ibyemezo bari basanzwe bafata u Rwanda nk’umufatanyabikorwa wizewe ndetse nk’urugero rw’igihugu cyagize iterambere ryihuse muri Afurika.

Nk’uko babivuga, bamwe muri bo bagaragaje kutishimira uburyo ubutegetsi bwa Trump bwakemuye ikibazo cya Congo, by’umwihariko ibihano byafatiwe bamwe mu bayobozi b’u Rwanda n’icyerekezo gishya cya dipolomasi ya Washington muri ako karere.

Isesengura rya Joshua Z. Walker, Reagan Miviri na Jason K. Stearns ritanga ishusho y’imbogamizi zigaragara igihe dipolomasi ishyize imbere inyungu z’ubukungu kurusha kubaka amahoro arambye.

Nubwo bemera ko ubuyobozi bwa Trump bwashoboye guhuza u Rwanda na Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo ku meza y’ibiganiro no kugera ku masezerano y’amahoro, bemeza ko ayo masezerano atari ahagije mu gukemura ikibazo cy’umutekano mu burasirazuba bwa Congo.

Mu mwanzuro wabo, aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko amahoro arambye mu Karere k’Ibiyaga Bigari adashobora kugerwaho binyuze gusa mu masezerano ya dipolomasi cyangwa mu nyungu z’ishoramari.

Ahubwo, basanga bisaba gukemura impamvu muzi z’amakimbirane, kubaka icyizere hagati y’impande zose, gushyiraho uburyo bukomeye bwo kubahiriza amasezerano no kugira uruhare rwuzuzanya rw’ibihugu byo mu karere, imiryango mpuzamahanga n’abafatanyabikorwa bose.